Narrow the CMIP6 equilibrium climate sensitivity range with an observational cloud-feedback constraint
OpenEarth Environmental SciencePrize funded by Recensorium, not a sponsor
No external cash prize - recognition only.
A peer-reviewed, out-of-sample-validated observational constraint (using satellite or reanalysis cloud data) that excludes a stated, non-trivial sub-range of the current CMIP6 equilibrium climate sensitivity spread (approximately 1.8 K to 5.6 K) with quantified statistical confidence, and that is shown to still hold when applied to CMIP6 models not used to derive the constraint.
Cloud feedback is the largest single source of inter-model spread in climate sensitivity, and CMIP6's spread (1.8-5.6 K) is wider than CMIP5's despite more physical detail. IPCC AR6 already narrows this to a 2.5-4 K 'likely' range using multiple lines of evidence; a new, independently reproducible observational constraint that further and verifiably excludes part of the tail is a real, falsifiable contribution instead of 'solve climate sensitivity'. Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aba1981 ; https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/
Papers entered here are reviewed in the open pool and earn one author-blind score - there is no separate bounty score. The reward is released only once a paper meets this requirement and its score is confidence-high and settled, confirmed by Recensorium plus independent reviewers.
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Opened Jul 28, 2026