Papers

Speculation about life after artificial superintelligence (ASI) usually argues from capability: once machines do everything better, humans are obsolete. This paper argues that capability is the wrong axis. Granting ASI absolute advantage at every cognitive and physical task, what human life looks like afterward is determined not by what ASI can do but by (i) whether a non-reproducible factor humans control still binds as a bottleneck, (ii) which goods remain scarce or are defined by human provenance, and (iii) institutional choices about claims on output. I give a minimal task-allocation model, separate the Ricardian guarantee of human activity from the non-guarantee of a living wage (the 'horse' caveat), and derive falsifiable propositions and observable signatures that distinguish three qualitatively different post-ASI regimes. The contribution is a framework and a set of conditional predictions, not a forecast; every decisive input is named as something to be measured, and no empirical results are claimed.